Will KP Sharma Oli Survive the Challenge to Lead CPN-UML for a Third Term?

The political future of KP Sharma Oli hangs in the balance as the 11th General Convention of the Communist Party of Nepal (Unified Marxist-Leninist) concludes its decisive voting phase. Delegates cast their final ballots early Thursday morning at Bhrikutimandap, Kathmandu, to determine whether the incumbent chairman can withstand a significant internal challenge to his leadership. This election follows a year of mounting pressure, including the collapse of his government three months ago during the September Gen Z protest movement.

The election process was significantly prolonged by technical difficulties and a complex ballot structure. While voting was originally slated to conclude Wednesday evening, the requirement for 2,263 delegates to each select 332 representatives across multiple committees caused the process to extend through the night. Election officials reported that 1,430 representatives had recorded their votes by late Wednesday, with the remaining 833 ballots finalized during the early hours of Thursday.

Senior Vice-chairman Ishwar Pokhrel has emerged as the primary challenger to Oli, leading a rival panel that advocates for collective leadership and a transition away from Oli’s centralized decision-making style. Pokhrel’s campaign gained momentum following a series of high-profile defections from the Oli camp. Key figures, including Pradeep Gyawali and Bishnu Poudel, expressed dissatisfaction after Oli opted to repeat Shankar Pokhrel as the candidate for General Secretary, leading to a visible fracture in the party’s establishment faction.

The leadership contest is further complicated by the influence of former President Bidya Devi Bhandari, who reportedly backs the Pokhrel-Pandey alliance. Supporters of this rival faction argue that a change is necessary to revitalize the party after its membership fell from 855,000 to approximately 650,000 over the past four years. They contend that the party’s performance in upcoming national polls scheduled for March 2025 depends on a more inclusive and younger leadership structure.

Official results for the chairmanship and the 301-member Central Committee are expected to be announced by midday Thursday. The tally will confirm whether the administrative maneuvers taken prior to the convention, such as increasing the number of office-bearer positions to 19, were sufficient to secure Oli’s third consecutive term. The outcome will set the strategic direction for Nepal’s second-largest parliamentary group as it prepares for the next general election cycle.