US-China War Over Taiwan Risks Nuclear Devastation, Warns Leading Think Tank

A war between the United States and China over Taiwan could escalate into an all-out nuclear conflict, a leading international defence think tank has warned.

In a report published on Thursday, the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) stated that both militaries are heavily focused on targeting each other’s primary command, control, and communication centers. The report warns that this rapid operational strategy risks triggering an unintended path toward nuclear devastation.

The findings have been released on the eve of Asia’s premier security summit, the Shangri-La Dialogue, which begins in Singapore on Friday. According to the IISS, the world stands on the precipice of a dangerous new nuclear arms race, with the Asia-Pacific region serving as its primary epicenter.

The Global Nuclear Balance

United States defense officials have long raised alarms over Beijing’s rapid nuclear expansion, noting that China is building up its arsenal far faster than any other global power. According to projections from the Pentagon, China’s total stockpile of operational nuclear warheads is estimated to reach 1,000 by 2030.

A breakdown of current global nuclear capabilities highlights the significant gaps that remain between the world’s major military powers:

A Breakdown in Communication

Analysts warn that the current geopolitical climate lacks the vital guardrails that kept the peace during the previous century. Daniel Salisbury, a senior fellow at the IISS, pointed out that during the Cold War, the US and the Soviet Union engaged in continuous, deeply formalized arms-control dialogues. Today, no such substantive diplomatic architecture exists between Washington and Beijing.

The report also revealed that despite a high-stakes summit held in Beijing earlier this month between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping, the critical issue of nuclear security was omitted from their discussions entirely.

Beijing Responds

The report’s conclusions have drawn sharp criticism from the Chinese government.

Jiang Bin, a spokesperson for China’s Ministry of National Defense, dismissed the IISS report as detached from reality. He reiterated Beijing’s long-standing diplomatic position, stating that the issue of Taiwan is strictly an internal Chinese matter and that no external interference would be tolerated.

Concurrently, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning urged the United States to tread with extreme caution regarding its policies and actions over Taiwan.

The warning sets a tense backdrop for the three-day Shangri-La Dialogue security forum running from 29 May to 31 May. US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth is scheduled to attend the conference to outline Washington’s regional strategy.

Beijing has yet to officially confirm whether Chinese Defense Minister Dong Jun will attend the summit to face his American counterpart.